Compass National Real Estate Insights – September 2023

“The surprisingly quick recovery [of the housing market] suggests that the residential real-estate downturn is turning out to be shorter and shallower than many housing economists expected after mortgage rates soared last year….There still aren’t enough homes for sale to meet demand.”
_{The Wall Street Journal, “The Fall in Home Prices May Already Be Over,” 9/8/23}

“Though today’s housing market is decidedly challenging, the fall typically ushers in more favorable buying conditions relative to the rest of the year.” (Per historical trends in inventory and pricing.)
_{Realtor.com Chief Economist, Weekly Housing Trends, 9/18/23}

The August 2023 median single-family-home sales price climbed 3.7% from one year ago…31% of sales sold for over the asking price…27% were purchased all-cash…”Home sales have been stable for several months, neither rising nor falling in any meaningful way,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rate changes will have a big impact over the short run, while job gains will have a steady, positive impact over the long run.”
_{National Association of Realtors, 9/21/23}

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The autumn selling season began after Labor Day and generally runs until early-mid November, when the market typically begins its big, mid-winter, holiday slowdown. In many regions of the country, the fall market, though relatively short, is the second busiest after spring.

This report will review national trends in home prices, listing supply and buyer demand, and selected economic and demographic indicators. A national report is a huge generalization of broad trends across an enormous range of regional submarkets, whose values and market dynamics vary. National data on September sales should become available in the third week of October.

_{Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate, good-faith estimates.}

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Monthly median house sales price since 2020: The August 2023 median price increased slightly from July, and was up 3.7% year-over-year.

Median home sales prices since 1990. After dropping in late 2022, prices have rebounded in 2023 close to their historic peak in June 2022.

U.S. median house sales price appreciation over varying periods since 1990.

The number of new listings in August 2023 dropped 7.5% year-over-year. Over the past 12 months, almost a million fewer new listings came on market.

Long-term trends in the number of homes for sale: This 12-month-rolling-average chart illustrates the enormous changes in inventory since 2000 and since 2020.

Long-term trends in sales: On a 12-month-rolling-average basis, sales volume – after surging during the pandemic boom – is the lowest since the great recession.

Days on market: Generally speaking, homes continue to sell very quickly, though not quite as quickly as during the height of the pandemic boom.

Mortgage interest rates since 2022, with an insert showing trends since 1976. Since August, rates have been bumping along above 7%.

In September, the Fed paused their interest-rate increases. This chart from 1981 reviews their long history of dramatic economic interventions.

Inflation, the Fed’s greatest concern, is far down from its mid-2022 peak (a 4-decade high), but has not seen significant improvement in recent months.

Employment has remained very strong despite the headwinds the economy has faced over the last 18 months.

Just released U.S. Census estimates for 2022: The next 2 slides review national data from a variety of angles.

Affordability: Median home sales price appreciation vs. the change in median household income, 1989 – 2022. Interest rates are the other big factor.

As a percentage of total sales, purchases by 1st time homebuyers have significantly declined, an important dynamic in the market.

A greater percentage of younger adults – in the age segment that typically fuels new-homebuyer sales – are still living with their parents.

According to RealTrends, Compass sells more residential real estate, in dollar-volume sales, than any other brokerage in the nation.

Please let us know if we can, in any way, be of assistance to you, or to your family, friends and colleagues.